A futuristic view to the political challenges in the Middle-East
Beyond propagandas, slogans and claims, the October 7th terroristic attack by Hamas on Israeli settlements and the subsequent armed attack by IRI. with dozens and even hundreds of bombs and missiles to Israel , The change long term formed relationship between Israel and its enemies is undoubtable .
. Before 7 October , it was usually Israel that determined the battlefield and conflict, it was Israel that attacked Islamic rejimes, interest from the innermost point of Iran to the gathering centres of the Ghods army in Lebanon and Syria. But the above mentioned two events caused a fundamental change in that traditional order. On October 7, Hamas committed a crime that can be called another holocaust(in a small measures) for the Jews. The depth of the crime and hidden cruelty in this was unbelievable
Al-Aqsa storm operation shows Hamas’s self-confidence and firm belief in Israel’s inability to reaction to this group. Today, 7 months after October 7, which is still bloody and painful like a fresh wound, it can be said that Hamas’s analysis was correct. We can did nothing to punish Hamas and specially IRI .
It can be said with certainty that this attack was carried out in complete and even operational and logistical coordination with IRI . Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah, and their claims over the independence of Hamas in the implementation of this operation, was only to confuse Israel, the United States and the international community, and it was like a group of gangsters fleeing and their destruction to waste the forces of the pursuers.
IRI,s missile and drone attack It was a very dangerous operation for Israel and carried out with the intention of inflicting major blows on the government and nation of Israel. Imagine for a moment that if more than 90 percent of these bombs and rockets were not destroyed and they exploded in Israel, how many Israeli people and how many living and urban centres of Israel would be destroyed.
IRI sent these huge numbers of bombs and rockets to explode and was ready to fight in response to it. Israel was practically defeated in front of these two terrible operations, Hamas has not been destroyed, . Israel did not respons to its terrorist attack, you may say that Israel razed Gaza to the ground and now is killed 40,000 Palestinians in this operation , but for the leaders of Hamas and IRI . The blood of 40,000 Palestinians is not worth as much as the blood of 40,000 insects, for the leaders of IRI. The killing of 7 leaders of Quds Force is not worthy of regret, hundreds, hundreds of brainwashed experimental generals such as Zahedi and Soleimani are ready to be martyred . Israel should learn from these two attacks as decisive signs. His methods of fighting against Hamas and IRI.must be changed, it can be said with certainty that Hamas, IRI. And Lebanon’s Hezbollah, with a feelling of joyness and victory, are already planning for the next more violent attack. This was the sentence that we said a year ago after the clashes between Israel and Hamas in May 2023, and we saw that a violent attack happened and today. We also say that: Israel alert Muhammad’s army comes just as it did on October 7.
Read more : an article from one year ago :
Bibi’s desperation in confronting the IRI.the storm is approaching!
and now this article is addressed to all those who are interested in the Jewish people, Jewish culture and the country of Israel and consider the continuation of conflicts in the region and in the current form to be a serious threat to the survival of the country of Israel. This article is addressed to all those who consider any victory of Hamas as a strong point for “Khamenei” and the victory of Khamenei means strengthening the position of the Islamic Republic inside the country and intensifying the repression, continuing the rule of the corrupt and ineffective system of the Islamic Republic. Wasn’t it the case that the demonic regime intensified the oppression of women and returned the Moral Security Police to the streets as soon as Hamas started fighting Israel and the subsequent missile and drone attack on Israel? At this moment in Iran’s history, we Iranians have a unique opportunity to defeat the common enemy of Judaism and Iranian by uniting with the Jewish nation. We will talk about this in another article. In this article, we are talking about the persuading the Jewish people and the Israeli government, which its existence is threatened. In this article, it is about persuading the Jewish people and the Israeli government that there is an existential and near-term threat to them, and Netanyahu should find abilities to change ways in deal with IRI as soon as possible find basic solution to overthrow IRI . Of course, the Jewish nation is a historical nation and will definitely remain stable and proud.
read more an article from 6 months ago
If the Islamic Republic is not overthrown, Israel will not exist in the next ten years .
In the fight against Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Israeli government and army are carrying out a part of the anti-fundamentalist struggle that the people of Iran are responsible for. The progressive and militant part of the Iranian nation proudly stands by the Jewish people in the struggle of the Israeli army against Hamas and Hezbollah. By destroying Hamas, the Israeli army blinds Khamenei in the strategic region of the Middle East. This article is addressed to all those who consider the weakening of the army and the country of Israel as the weakening of the struggle against the demonic system ruling Iran.
Now this article is addressed to all those who know that if the Islamic Republic, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or even semi-civilized fundamentalists like the Muslim Brotherhood can one day break the security fence of Israel and reach the cities of Israel, on a national scale with women and the girls will do what Hamas did on October 7th . The same thing is what ISIS did to Yazidis. The same thing that Omar and Uthman’s troops did to Iranians at the beginning of Islam and the same thing that the IRGCs, fascists did to Nika Shah Karmi, first sexual assault and then brutal murder and finally “Destruction of human civilization“
The State of Israel and the Jewish people, as the vanguard of the struggle of the progressive people of the region against Islamic fundamentalism, from the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood to the Khomeinist Shia, must remain strong and powerful. You may say how is it possible to talk about Israel as a fighter for democracy and anti-fundamentalism and an ally of the Iranian nation when this government is accused by the Arabs of not respecting human rights in the face of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. In this regard, it can be said that any government, when faced with an existential threat, based on the principle of maintaining national sovereignty, may violate some human rights principles, and on the other hand, we, as Iranians, who consider the main danger to our country and the region to be Islamic fundamentalism, cannot take the side of Hamas in the choice between Israel and Hamas.
It is not recommended to hurt an ally like Israel that practically fight against IRI . To hurt Israel because of the Arabs who consider themselves anti-Iranians, they consider Iranians impure and even Hassan Nasrallah considers his alliance with Iranian mullahs to be valid because the mullahs and Hezbollah do not consider themselves Iranians, but to the Islamic Ummah. Which political force may stand against its historical ally for the cause of so-called human rights measures ? Israel is the historical ally of our Iranian nation in the fight against fundamentalism and Islamic extremism, and with the removal of the Islamic Republic from Iran, there is no reason for any conflict between the two nations of Iran and the Jews. It is easy that among plenty of Muslim and Arab countries, Iran after the Islamic Republic and Israel, will be the only two non-Arab and non-Muslim countries (Islam as the official religion) in the region. After the destruction of the Islamic Republic, Israel has no interest in dividing Iran. And on the contrary, Great Iran is Israel’s strategic ally in the Muslim region of the Middle East.
The futuristic view of the political developments in the middle East
With a forward-looking view of the political developments in the region and what happened to the region after the Shia fundamentalists gained power in Iran, one of the scenarios in the near future in the Middle East and even Central Asia and the Caucasus is the establishment of Muslim Brotherhood fundamentalist governments in the region with the staging of Turkey. The occurrence of this scenario may be the vote of America and Europe as two active political, military and economic superpowers in the region and to challenge the power of Russia in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Iran in the Islamic world. This scenario will take a step towards strengthening the fundamentalism of the Muslim Brotherhood type, which the result of such a process will be the spread of anti-Jewish, anti-Israeli culture. Didn’t Europe and America strengthen the fundamentalists against the Soviet Union for years without paying attention to its disastrous results? They did. And the result was the rise of al-Qaeda, bin Laden, September 11 and the rise of ISIS fundamentalism in the region. In their regional policies in the exploding Middle East, America and Europe have always considered only short-term security or political interests and ran away from the region when the results of their mistakes appeared. They handed over Iraq to the Shiites and ran away, Afghanistan was handed over to the Taliban by USA in the hope that the anti-Shiite Taliban, will challenge IRI and we saw that on the contrary , Taliban was welcome by Mullahs in Tehran. If America and Europe decide to challenge Russia by strengthening Turkey and fundamentalism, they will not hesitate to implement such a policy, and the main harm from implementing such politics will be Israel and the anti-fundamentalist opposition in Iran. Iran will also welcome any anti-Israeli rhetoric , even from the anti-Shia Sunni Muslim Brotherhood
Revolutionary (radical) changes happen very quickly and Israel may be have no much time. No one thought that less than a year after the last conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hamas would commit the crime of capturing civilians in Israel and killing Israeli citizens on October 7, and the Islamic Republic with 300 missiles and drones attack Israel and then Israel is forced to refrain from reciprocating. It can be said with certainty that now the Islamic Republic, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah of Lebanon are looking for a plan to attack Israel and push the intifada into the territory of Israel. In that case, even hundreds and thousands of nuclear warheads, will not save Israel.
Encouraging and stimulating the strengthening of Sunni and Shia fundamentalism, will be the Islamic Republic and Erdogan’s government.
This article is addressed to those who love liberalism and social democracy and are sure that as in Iran 1979, the rise of Shiites in Iraq 2003, as in Afghanistan 2021 and the rise of the Taliban, as in Yemen and the rise of the Houthis in 2015, Lebanon and the conversion of Shiites to undisputed political-military power, now also if In any other country from Central Asia to the Middle East and North Africa, a power vacuum and the destruction of the ruling political powers in these countries would happen, Muslims fundamentalists have the best chance of capturing political power. This process has been started for nearly 4 decades in Iran and has been progressing slowly. The growth of dangerous Islamic fundamentalism can now start from Palestine at the beginning of the 21st century, such a movement can change to a new Intifada and this can be dangerous for Israel and jewish people in all over the world . This kind of process can pose an existential threat to Israel and the liberal- democratic discourse as a whole . On this basis, the government Israel and the progressive opposition against the Islamic Republic have heavy responsibilities in this regard.
Israel does not have much chance!
The era of Muslim fundamentalists gaining power is at the beginning phase
One of the Iranian analysts of the Arab world, Alireza Nourizadeh, when the Americans were stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan, was overwhelmed with feeling success, saying, “The era of gaining power of political Islam and Muslim fundamentalists is over.” Since then, Afghanistan has fallen into the hands of the Taliban, the government of Yemen is practically working as a proxy force of the Islamic Republic under the orders of the IRGC, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah has become an infernal power against the free world and its universal values. The process of gaining power and seizing political power by Shia and Sunni fundamentalists has been started for 40 years, it is continuing and many governments will emerge with Islamic fundamentalism in the region. Based on this, Israel will soon be in the middle of plenty of fundamentalist political forces cantered on the Islamic Republic and Turkey. You may say that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a major threat to Israel, but we saw in Iran in 1979 that Khomeini, at the beginning of his rise to power, even didn’t support the occupation of the American embassy. But it was the pressure of Khomeini’s supporters that forced him to defend the occupation of the embassy. Brotherhood Türkiye still in the same default mode has the passion to defend Islamic culture and anti-Western identity among Islamic countries will turn into a revolutionary force. Let’s not forget that in order to challenge the Islamic Republic and especially Russia, the United States and Europe can expand the fundamentalist culture of the Muslim Brotherhood type, You may say that the Muslim Brotherhood is not a major threat to Israel, but we saw in Iran in 1980 that Khomeini at the first days was not even in favour of occupying the American embassy , but it was the pressure of his supporters that forced him to defend the occupation. The supposed situation that arises among the Islamic countries, the passion to defend the Islamic culture and anti-Western identity, will turn into a revolutionary and subversive force of democracy. Right now, Turkey, which always maintained its economic relations with Israel, was affected by the Israeli situation that arose after October 7, which was directed by IRI. was, cut off these relations with the annual value of 9 billion dollars, on this basis, Turkey and anti-Israeli groups from the Middle East to the University of Oklahoma are playing in Khamenei’s field and in his favour! Let’s not forget that America and Europe to challenge IRI. And especially Russia, they need to expand the culture of fundamentalism of the Muslim Brotherhood type, and one of the existing scenarios is to push Erdogan to get closer to the Turkish-speaking countries of the former Soviet Union, Central Asia and the Caucasus, in order to encourage the Muslims for capture the political power .
The process of gaining power of fundamentalist Muslims in the Middle East is a historical process and is one of the future possibilities of the region’s geopolitics changes . Muslims gaining power has been black unpleasnt for liberals, democrats and the middle classes, but for Muslims it is a source of power and charity and tampering with the treasury .After Islamic revolution In Iran and the victories of fundamentalists in Türkiye, many Muslims in the other Middle East countries are regarding about seizing political power. For this group of people in the region, the seizure of power by the oppressed muslims under the leadership of the Mullahs is a source of countless possibilities and embezzlement and power
Israel be alert: As at 7 October “Muhammad’s army is coming”. .The existential threat to Israel is serious.
Many analysts believe that after the dark era when the Islamic Republic ruled over the people of Iran, political Islam has lost its chance to seize power in other countries. This theory is absurd and worthless. Khomeini’s movement in Iran was severely suppressed in 1953-1342, but only 14 years later in 1357-1979, with power, he pushed back America and the Shah from the seat of power in Iran. Turkish people voted for Erbakan and then Ak Party despite witnessing the dark experience and dark era of the Islamic Republic in Iran. Fundamentalist Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq, while America is the absolute power in these two countries, have captured the political pillars. In the same way in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have now become the backyard of the Islamic Republic. It is not a pleasant place. In 2011, at the beginning of the Arab Spring, fundamentalist Muslims were only one step away from dominating Egypt and Tunisia, and this was only prevented by a coup in Egypt. Today, with a glance to Central Asia from Turkmenistan to the border of China and in the Caucasus from Azerbaijan to the Muslim republics of the Russian Federation, Friday prayers and Eetikaf ceremonies with more than 1000 people (ceremonies where young Muslims go to the mosque and only pray and recite the Qur’an for ten days and from there do not come out) are formed. In every village and small town, people build mosques on their own at their own expense and despite the wishes of the leaders of these countries.
The process of fundamentalist Muslims gaining power in the Middle East is a historical process and one of the possibilities of the geopolitical future of the region.
This article is addressed to all those who have come to the logical conclusion with a future-oriented analysis and not out of feeling and without reasoning that whether we want it or not, Islamic states will emerge in a wide spectrum, which in the best case are Rajab Tayyip Erdogan type of these states. The inevitable fate will be a wide area from Central Asia to the Persian Gulf countries and from there to the peninsula and the Middle East and to North Africa. Were the armies of twenty countries able to prevent the Taliban from gaining power in Afghanistan? What will happen to Israel in such hypothetical conditions? Will America abandon Israel, as after the recent missile attack of the Islamic Republic on Israel, America was one of the main factors in preventing Israel’s counterattack on the Islamic Republic? Europe and America are already concerned about the Muslim population living in their countries.
What are the characteristics of these possible political systems?
The main feature of such political structures will be extreme opposition to Israel, Judaism, and Zionism, and a large part of student movements and second and third generation Muslims living in America and European countries will support it. The only chance of the anti-fundamentalist progressive front in the region is that such movements are religiously Sunni and anti-Shia and anti-Islamic Republic. But experience has shown that Khamenei and the IRGC leaders have left no doubt in their efforts to strengthen anti-Israel and American Sunnis and they believe it is better for fundamentalist Muslims to take political power at this stage. The Islamic Republic supported the rise of the anti-Shiite Taliban, supported the Sunni Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood, or Bashar al-Assad Alavi, and will not hesitate to support the rise of fundamentalist Sunni forces.
The author of these lines had predicted the growing power of marginal Sunni and Shia Muslim forces two decades ago, and all those predictions came true. In the last few years, in this series of articles, Israel was warned that Israel is empty-handed in conflict with the Islamic Republic. In this articles, the leaders of Israel were warned that the storm is approaching Israel and that the Islamic Republic is seeking to start a new intifada and drag a civil war into Israel. In a series of articles, we warned Netanyahu that the Iranian allies of Israel do not have serious motivations to fight against the Islamic Republic and that they are not fundamentally political and are looking for a comfortable life and taking the support of the United States and Reza Pahlavi’s political position of defending Israel and the United States. It is easy that IRGC intelligence infiltrators are spreading among them and the facilities of these Iranians who are allies of Israel are in the best condition starting a Twitter storm, creating anti-mullah comedy shows, and managing Twitter pages and Persian social networks belong to Israel or America. On the other hand, the Arab allies of the Islamic Republic, from Hezbollah to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, are serious and armed fighters against Israel. Israel should be able to find Iranian allies who have the power to mobilize millions of working people and poor people. The current Iranian allies of Israel basically have the power to mobilize among the prosperous and middle classes, which do not have the ability to mobilize the poor and deprived masses.
Based on the prospective analysis that was raised:
A: One of the possible scenarios in an area as large as the Persian Gulf and North Africa in the medium-term future, we will be witness the growth and expansion of Islamic states and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism. Turkey, especially in Central Asia and the Caucasus, if the Islamist AK Party remains in power, it will play a major role in supporting the fundamentalists’ seizure of political power. In such a situation, America and Europe will support the growth of fundamentalism in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
B: Türkiye will try to gather governments with different Turkish dialects in Central Asia, which was under the leadership of the Bukhara Khanate and under the religious leadership of the Ottoman Empire until the October Revolution, and become an acceptable model for the Muslims of these countries in the administration of society. Let’s not forget that after the October 7 crime and attack Islamic Republic to Israel 25/01/1403 (14 April 2024), enthusiasm united and integrated the Muslim population of the countries of the region. Erdogan has forgotten his conflict with the Islamic Republic and speaks of the alliance of Muslim countries. Or in the middle of the Gaza war and after October 7, the Muslims of the Autonomous Republic of Dagestan attacked a plane carrying Jewish residents from Israel at Makhachkala Airport. Israel should now prepare itself for the conditions in which most of the countries in the region are fundamentalist governments and prepare for the anti-Jewish wave which engulf the region. All those who follow the series of articles on this site remember that only three months before the October attack, in an article entitled “The storm is approaching Israel”, the negotiations between Khamenei, Hamas and Islamic Jihad were speculated for a terrible attack on Israel. As that prediction was correct, the prediction of the rise of fundamentalist Muslims in the Middle East and even Central Asia will also be correct.
What should be done: The October 7th attack and the subsequent unexpected attack by the Islamic Republic on Israel proved that the power equations in the region have changed. America, especially as long as the democrats are in power, is not ready to disrupt the historical order governing the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz for the deafens of Israel and by attacking the Islamic Republic. Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas have the power to disrupt the fragile balance of southern Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, which has been in Israel’s favor so far. Israel must stop childish and stupid games of assassinating the leaders of the corps and destroying and exploding nuclear centres of the Islamic Republic of Iran. After two decades of terror, destruction and explosion attributed to Israel, today the Islamic Republic has the whip hand in dealing with Israel. We said that “Netanyahu’s” hand is empty in dealing with the Islamic Republic, the recent events proved that statement. The Islamic Republic was able to shoot 300 missiles and drones at Israel at one time, but it did not dare to do so. During a terrorist attack, Hamas was able to infiltrate into Israel and take dozens of innocent and defenseless hostages. On October 7, the Islamic Republic and Hamas were able to create another holocaust for the Jews, and Israel could almost do nothing. Yes, Israel attacked Gaza and out of anger razed Gaza to the ground, but still has to negotiate with Hamas. Hezbollah can still destroy life in Israel by firing dozens of rockets. The problem is that Israel’s military attack on the Gaza strip made it possible for Hamas and the Islamic Republic to attract the public opinion among the students of European countries and the United States by oppression. This means an explosion in the traditional balance and order of the region, this means a warning of destruction to Israel. With the same certainty that I said on 05/19/2023 that Israel’s hands are empty in dealing with the Islamic Republic and the storm is approaching Israel, I also say today that Israel will face an existential threat in the next few years. If the Islamic Republic and Hamas can attack just once and now at the same time turn the missile attack by the Islamic Republic into a general revolt of the Arabs and Palestinians living in Israel, Israel will definitely face an existential threat. Netanyahu should stop repeating his mistakes and stop doing propaganda and worthless acts of destruction and terror. Destruction and assassinations attributed to Israel have strengthened the position of Tehran’s mullahs inside the country. Netanyahu has the wisdom and tact to destroy the Islamic Republic, he just has to be able to accept that times have changed and he cannot face the challenge of overthrowing the Islamic Republic with the old tools. Netanyahu. . Netanyahu, Man of hard struggle against fundamentalism, must change his mind. He must change his Iranian allies, with Twitter storms and robotic likes, and organize pages of social networks by exiled Iranians, it cannot be IRI overthrew
Let Israel have dozens and hundreds of atomic bombs. If the Arabs and Palestinians living in Israel join to a possible attack by Hamas and a foreign attack by the demonic regime ruling Iran, and start a violent uprising against the Israeli government, even the gods will not be able to save the (chosen) people , and Israel’s atomic bombs will also be ineffective and humanity will witness another holocaust, this time it will not be from Hitler but from fundamentalist Muslims.
کاوه فرزند ملت 
Leave a Reply