The leader of the Islamic Republic “Ali Khamenei“ had said that Israel will not see the next 25 years, but today after the October 7 operation, it can be said confidently that if the situation continues in the same way that we have seen in the last few years, in the next ten years, Israel will face fundamental and vital challenges and threats directly from the Islamic Republic and the proxies of this regime. More clearly The continuation of the Islamic Republic’s existence for Israel is not only the hostlity of a regional rival but is a matter of life and death.
With the conditions of the last few years I mean the gradual withdrawal of the USA from the region, the victories of the Islamic Republic in proxy wars, the gradual approach of Saudi Arabia to the Islamic Republic and Russia, and the recent terrorist attack by Hamas into Israeli settlements. The prospect of changing conditions to the benefit of the Islamic Republic and to the detriment of Israel was completely predictable and this prospect was emphasized in the following article.
Bibi’s desperation in confronting the IRI..the storm is approaching!
Based on the same forecasts, it can be said with confidence that if the situation continues in the same way, Israel will face serious security and vital challenges in the short term.
In that article, I precisely predict that IRI; Hamas, and Islamic Jihad are planning a terrorist operation against Israel. Of course, it should not be forgotten that the actions of the Islamic Republic and its proxies are based on taking hostage the security of the region, although it has apparently led to the strength of the Islamic Republic in the short term. Although this process ultimately did not lead to the final victory of the Islamic Republic but caused the emergence of chaos and the destruction of regional traditional powers. This trend was observed in Iraq and Syria with the emergence of ISIS and the escalation of bloody ethnic conflicts between Shias and Sunnis against each other.
There should be no doubt that the October 7th operation was carried out by Hamas and with the direct support even can say with the directly order of the Islamic Republic in terms of weapons, financial and intellectual support, and the intelligence help of Russia with the hope of encouraging the Arab’s habitant in Israel to join it. They faced complete failure. But there is no guarantee that possible operations in the future will not be supported by Arabs living in Israel. The leader of Iran waits for more operations to encourage Arabs population to be more active against Israel.
The aim of Hamas and the Islamic Republic was to drag the Arabs living in Israel into protest movements and provoke a civil war in Israel, but the aim of Russia was to punish the Israeli government for its support of Ukraine. Khamenei wishes to drag the Arabs living in Israel into conflict through the attacks of the fundamentalist militias of Hezbollah and Hamas inside the territory of Israel and to achieve this goal, he is ready to take deadly risks for both the people of Iran and Israel. The suitable response of the Israeli army to Hamas caused real fear for Hassan Nasrollah and IRGC. It is not the Israeli army to blame for the assault on the Gaza Strip but It is the great mistake of IRI and Hamas. They started on 7 October and they must be blamed for the consequences of it. They don’t expect so strong military response to the 7 October operation.
Why IRI wishes to destroy Israel!
The leaders of the Islamic Republic, from Khamenei to the leaders of the IRGC, constantly express their wish for the destruction of Israel, and then with an all-out protest that they, as the leaders of one country, should not order the destruction of another country, of course, try to resolve it and not go back. They have gone back on their word and say that they meant that the Palestinian people themselves will determine the responsibility of the Israeli government.
Of course, we all know that this is how they deliver their message to their audience, whether they are opponents or supporters of the Islamic Republic and Israel. This method is a common method in the behavior of the IRI. which delivered the message to their own audience without accepting its legal and moral responsibility. Apparently, they deny believing in it, but they fully benefit from its results.
Why does the IRI want the complete annihilation of the Jewish state? What is it,s motivation?
look at the obvious and hidden motives of Khamenei and other leaders of the Islamic Republic to destroy Israel.
— Obvious motives: As a fundamentalist political system and structure with a totalitarian political system, the Islamic Republic sees itself in conflict and enmity with any democratic and modern system. The Islamic Republic declares itself to be an anti-modern system, although it opportunistically exploits all the achievements of the modern world. Let us not forget that in the political-social alignments inside Iran, the modern classes are directly opposed to the Islamic Republic and are supported intellectually, logistically and organizationally by the Western countries and the USA.
— Considering the close relations of the Israeli government with the Pahlavi monarchy, which has so far shown itself in the Israel clear support of Reza Pahlavi, and the escape of ex-SAVAK ( security forces of political regime till 1979) members to Israel, after the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic feels very threatened by Israel. Israel,s open support for protest movements, and separatist groups Ilham Aliyev government of Azerbaijan fuels this concern again.
—- Israel has taken responsibility(nonofficial ) for all the assassinations of the nuclear activists of the Islamic Republic and sabotages in the military centers of the IRI. In addition, IRGC gathering centers in Lebanon and Syria are regularly attacked by Israe artillery and air force. In this way, it is natural for the Islamic Republic to feel a terrible danger from Israel. Using Israel’s closeness to ethnic and separatist groups, Ilham Aliyev, and the threat of a military attack by Israel, IRI has presented this enmity as Israel’s enmity with the territorial integrity of Iran, and in this way, it has attracted parts of nationalists and pan-Iranists.
The hidden motives of the Islamic Republic for bloody enmity to the Israeli government:
— Belief in ethnic-Arabic myths about the bloody enmity of Jews with Muslims at the time of the rise of Islam. Of course, the leaders of the Islamic Republic do not express this issue, but in describing the history of the beginning of Islam, they refer to the Jews as evil, stubborn, and untrustworthy people, and this itself causes hatred towards the Jews among Muslims and especially Shiites.
The high-ranking clergy, which has held the political-social leadership of the Islamic Republic and has seized the country,s large financial resources, is the last stronghold of religious reaction and traditionalism in Iran, and knows that if it loses political power in Iran, it will be removed from the political scene in the country.
On this basis and considering the hatred of large parts of the people inside the country to IRI , It is trying to attract the traditional strata of the region and Islamic countries to itself.
Khamenei and IRGC have been successful in attracting Shiite populations in the region of Iraq. Lebanon, Yemen, Hazaras in Afghanistan, and even the extreme Shiites of Pakistan.
in the last decade due to the relative advantage of being Shiites. And they were able to use these people, who are usually marginalized and without human rights, as mercenaries and soldiers. One of the reasons for Saudi Arabia,s current relationship with the Islamic Republic was the success and victory of the Islamic Republic in its proxy wars with Turkey and the Saudis. After consolidating these victories and the bloody suppression of protesters inside, Khamenei tried to inflame the tension between the Palestinians and Israel and wanted to turn this tension into a military conflict between Israel and Hamas and between the Arabs and Israel and from there into a tension between Muslims and Israel in order to be able to turn the minority position of the Shia clergy into the dominant and majority position. In the meantime, Khamenei abuses the fundamentalist discourse of anti-imperialists, orthodox anti-American leftists, and in short, any rhetoric that supports him in any way.
After succeeding in attracting Shia groups in the region, Khamenei considers his continued survival in the political arena in Iran to be supported by millions of Arab populations and therefore tries to make the situation in Palestine critical by inciting Muslim terrorist groups to engage in anti-human operations inside the territory of Israel and settlements. There is no doubt that the people living in Gaza and the WestBank have the right to live in these areas, but the problem is that the IRI easily provokes and abuses these people and leaders of political groups.
. In fact, Khamenei has made a tool of power from these people by financing the terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, so that he can act to save the victim by inciting violence and become the hero of the region and the Islamic world.
Therefore, terrorist operations of this kind are not carried out with the aim of realizing the possible rights of the Palestinian people. On the other hand, we Iranians have a very important experience in the matter of strengthening the Shia clergy.
The increase in the power of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is the basis for the emergence of a kind of ISIS fundamentalism in the region.All those who have considered the experience of Iran and the rise of power to the Islamic Republic know that the process that led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic was based on freedom, humanitarian and justice-oriented slogans.Any handover of power to Hamas or even Mahmoud Abbas will lead to the rise of violent ISIS and Shia,s fundamentalists in the region, who will not hesitate to kill others; eachothers and unleash a flood of blood. Let,s not forget that such an assumed situation can lead to the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the region, which is a major danger for democracy-seeking and freedom-seeking movements in Iran and the region.
On this basis, preventing Hamas and Hezbollah from gaining power in Palestine and Lebanon is also considered a part of the Iranain opposition,s struggle against the IRI.
Therefore, the prospect of establishing an independent Palestinian government led by Hamas in Gaza and even by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank means more and more possibilities for fundamentalist groups and even ISIS to seize political power In some areas of the Middle East.
From the thoughts of Iraqi secular Shias such as Ahmad Chalabi and Ayad Alavi, even without their will, ISIS and Hashd al-Shaabi emerged, and Mahmoud Abbas and Arafat became the foundation for the emergence of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which did not hesitate to unleash a bloodbath. Salafist, fundamentalist, and anti-human groups emerged from Hamas, ‘s increasing power, and the modern world must stand against this trend and even prevent Muslims from depending on the Islamic Republic, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and ISIS for their future. The strengthening of Hamas and Hezbollah in the region is the basis for the possible emergence of violent Islamic fundamentalism and must be opposed.
There is no doubt that the operation of Hamas was brutal, there is no doubt that the rise of Islamic Jihad led to the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the region, but today, nearly a month after the October 7 operation, Israel’s self-defense in the Gaza Strip is in the public opinion of the Muslim countries is condemned as a barbaric operation, and if such an operation is repeated in the next few years, it will unite Muslims against Israel and strengthen the position of IRI and Khamenei.
The risk of a united Muslim population
What happened at an airport in the Republic of Dagestan very soon can happen in many other Islamic countries. Netanyahu should know that today’s world is not the world of the Yom Kippur War era and that Muslim extremists are in political power in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and can shape the public atmosphere against Israel. Moslem population more and more use their rights in Western countries and more than 80% of these people are against Israel.
What should the Israeli government do?
In general, it can be said that today the main source of religious-Islamic fundamentalism in the region of the Islamic Republic is the Shiite clergy led by Khamenei in Iran and the region. Israel, ‘s tactics in confronting the Islamic Republic based on high-ranking atomic activist assassinations in Iran, sabotaging the regims military and atomic centers, Israel,s cooperation with separatist ethnic groups and the government of Azerbaijan have no effect in stopping the Islamic Republic from equipping Palestinian groups, approaching the ability to produce atomic bombs and achieving other regional goals.
The October 7 terrorist operation clearly showed the increasing posibilities of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Lebanon,s Hezbollah in their ability to bring Israel and the region into crisis. So far, Netanyahu,s government has been unable to apply tactics to counter the advances of the Islamic Republic, and it should fundamentally revise Israel’s dealings with the Islamic Republic. There is no doubt that these policies should be replaced by more effective policies to weaken the Islamic Republic, which will be discussed in another article. If Israel cannot stop the IRI’s fatal activities or can’t help to abolish IRI, it will not see the next 10 years, let alone 25 years.
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