Many analysts believe that the long interview of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, with “Tucker Carlson”, a former reporter of Fox News, proved his strong approach, mastery of the interview, and determined the direction of the interview on the part of Vladimir Putin. The writer of these lines, however, thinks otherwise and believes that Putin shouted his weakness , word for word in this interview.
If we want to look at the interview from a technical point of view, Putin won this interview. Mentioning dozens of statistics and figures without mistakes and slips, referring to history like a history professor who is giving a history lesson to students, and finally his rich intelligence made him the winner of the interview from a technical point of view, who was able to even force the interviewer to accompany and Sympathize with his positions.
personally Putin is a strong person, but he is in a weak position . Putin’s weak political position is not necessarily related to him personalities , the fact is that he represents a weak society. Of course, a weak society does not mean a weak country. As a nation-state, Russia is a strong country, it has more than 4000 nuclear warheads, and no country can easily attack that country or impose its will on it.
But the main reason for the weakness of Russia’s position is that the people and civil societies no right to share their opinions in Russia’s social and political events , and of course this weakness also comes from Russia’s political traditions, the centrality of the leader as the father of the nation, and ultimately the country’s economy.
The economy of the great country of Russia is based on the export of raw materials, oil, gas, wood and, in the best case, minerals and chemicals. 70% of Russia’s exports are oil products, and we all know that oil economies are full of corruption and the basic crises are the lack of government’s need to the citizens, taxes and necessarily no need to them.
It is not yet known how many percent of the 500 billion foreign exchange reserves that were at the disposal of the government of the Russian Federation before the start of the war were spent to keep the price of the ruble at 100 units for one dollar.
In an oil economy, the relationship between the government and the nation is not a democratic relationship, the main wealth is in the hands of the government and naturally, the power circles close to the political elite are the most beneficiaries of the rent provided by the sale of raw materials and oil. The lack of transparency in the redistribution of wealth has now turned Russia into one of the most unequal countries in the world. But of course, it is not the case that the position of “Vladimir Putin” is weak and he is ultimately the loser of the game in this interview and on a global level. So where is Putin’s weakness the interview with Tucker Carlson?
Good trait causes envy of others and hurts its owner
By the way, what is Putin’s weak point is the source of his underground wealth, i.e. oil and gas. Look at the following table: This table shows the relationship and economic exchanges between Russia and the United States in 2016, and after that and before the start of the war in Ukraine, this. About 80% of Russia’s exports to the United States are oil, gas, chemicals and basic metals (steel and iron), which means that more than a century after the October Revolution, the Russian Federation still sells raw materials and, in return, imports heavy-duty machinery and equipment from the United States in transportation, wide-range lenses in space industries, microscopes and etc. It goes without saying that America is better compared to Russia in terms of the complexity of exchange products. There are many suppliers of oil and gas under the domination of America and America itself is one of the exporters of oil and gas. That is, it is Russia that needs America in this trade exchange, and it is Russia that will lose its economic development if it is sanctioned more than this.
Russia’s exports to the United States are wood, oil and chemical products
America’s exports to Russia are machinery, electronic equipment and…
Russia’s negative trade balance with Europe is just as strong
According to the report issued by one of the foreign trade commissions of the European Union, in 2021, the last year before the start of sanctions caused by the Ukraine crisis, the volume of trade between the Russian Federation and the European Union was 257 billion dollars, of which it is 158/5. European imports from Russia in dollars, of which (62% – 9.98 billion) are oil and gas, wood (2.3 billion dollars, 2%), iron and steel (4.7 billion USD, 7.7%) chemical fertilizer (1.78% of M.D, 1.1%)
On the other hand, when we look at EU exports to Russia, we realize the nature of Russia’s dire need for trade with the West. Europe’s exports to Russia: 99 billion dollars, including equipment and machinery worth (€19.5 billion, 19.7%) – vehicle engines (€8.95 billion, 9%), medicine and related equipment (€8.1 billion, 8.1%), electronic equipment €7.57 billion, 7.6%). Plastics (€4.38 billion, 4.3%).
In the previous year, i.e. in 2020, the export of services from Europe to Russia was 20 billion, while Europe imported only 8 billion euros from Russia.
As you can see, in the commercial exchanges between the two sides, it is Russia that needs to continue the economic relationship with Europe and America based on the type of goods being exchanged, whether the western side is able to supply oil and gas, etc. from many other world sources, but Russia cannot easily obtain the industrial equipment exchanged with the West from any source. It can be said that it is precisely because of this need that “Vladimir Putin” throughout the interview emphasizes the long-term desire of his country to establish a wider relationship with the West. As Putin emphasizes, the request for membership in the club of European countries, even in the request to join NATO by Yeltsin, later by Putin, and until now many times in official and unofficial negotiations, has been raised by Russia, but America and Europe, naturally and for reasons which is not the place to discuss here, they are not willing to accept this request of Russia. Putin says that he, Yeltsin and Gorbachev have shouted that we are bourgeois like you, we also want to become a member of NATO (and naturally participate in the attack on Libya, Iraq and Syria), which means that Russia and especially the current leadership, its politicians and the middle and prosperous classes that rule Russia do not want to have anything to do with the southern world in terms of political geography, but it is the West that does not consider them and therefore, all the illusions of the Islamic Republic about the resistance front are illusions of some mullahs and Hezbollah who are worn out. Even recently, a part of the Hizbollahs published pictures of Khamenei, the President of China and Vladimir Putin as the leaders of an imaginary front called resistance. Whenever the West gives Russia the green light to enter the club of advanced industrialized countries, the Russians will turn their backs on the Islamic Republic and China without delay. The oligarchs ruling Russia and the middle and prosperous classes of this country love American life and western values.
On the other hand, let us consider that Europe will not easily accept Russia, a country where millions of Muslims live in its Muslim parts, as a member with equal rights.
The moot point of joining NATO or the European Union inside Russia is also a political issue. The reformers within the Communist Party, who have finally shown themselves in the group of Gorbachev, Yeltsin and now Vladimir Putin, in opposition to the orthodox faction within the party, whose last leader was Yuri Andropov, assured that as soon as the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, America and Europe in order to strengthen their positions, will accept non-communist Russia warmly and start exporting modern industry and technology to Russia, and the West will quickly industrialize Russia like itself.
But the West is more interested in expanding economic relations with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus,(former Soviet Union countries) and expanding the NATO agreement to the innermost borders of the Russian Federation without the Kremlin permission , rather than creating a competitor for itself. Europe and America are thirsty to getcontrol to 600,000 tons of cotton produced annually by Uzbekistan and nearly 500,000 tons of aluminum produced annually by Tajikistan, or the huge capacities of the economy of Kazakhstan and the oil of Turkmenistan, but even the cotton of Uzbekistan or the aluminum of Tajikistan are designed to produce, grow and harvest and only used in Russian factories and products. After the Soviet Union,s collaps any agreement that western companies made with these countries to change production lines, it was left unfinished due to Russia’s bloody intervention. .
If Europe and America continue to deal with Russia in a hostile manner, in the near future we will see more Ukrainians events for Russia in Central Asia or the Caucasus. The most ready country to clash with Russia is Kazakhstan, and this is precisely the reason why Russia and Putin are afraid of Europe and America. And this is Russia’s weakness in front of the West. How many years can Russia survive in other wars like Ukraine’s, war ? Let’s not forget that a large part of lawyers, doctors, high-ranking employees of ministries and even up to the level of deputy ministers, in general and even by the propaganda of the Kremlin, are considered as the hidden army of the West in Russia, and they generally love America and American life values . Vladimir Putin is well aware of all these weaknesses in front of the West.(Tv series- Спящие– Hidden army- has made about the so-called hidden army of western countries in Russia)
Now, the Russian Communist Party can constantly emphasize the analytical error of the party’s reformers of yesteryear and the Kremlin’s rulers today, and it is in this connection that improving relations with America and Europe is a matter of honor and, on the other hand, vital for Vladimir Putin
It seems that the desire of Putin and the Kremlin to expand relations with the West is not an issue exclusive to the far years of the after collapse, Putin is even now willing to pay any price to achieve this goal. In the same interview, Vladimir Putin says that at the beginning of the attack on Ukraine, when the Russian army had reached 25 kilometers from Kiev, he was ready to withdraw because of the promise he made with the leaders of the European countries to end the war quickly, and then as usual on the western side, they had egg on his face and broke all their promises. Therefore, from the point of view of the interests of the Russian Federation, Putin, with his mistake, which, like Gorbachev or Yeltsin, ended up with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and NATO, Putin, in order to show his coordination with Europe, retreated from 25 kilometers from Kiev, which caused the continuation of the war. So far, nearly a million have been killed and wounded on both sides. Or in the years of Donald Trump’s presidency in April 2017, in one of the meetings of the Security Council due to the chemical bombing in Syria, the deputy of the Russian representative in the United Nations, “Vladimir Safronov”, spoke about the increasing proximity of his country to the United States and the confusion of Europe and the United Kingdom. Does Russia still think that America or Europe are standing in front of each other to get closer to Russia? In this case, aren’t Putin and the Russian diplomatic group who lack understanding of the political realities of the world today?
It is based on this lack of correct understanding that it can be said that Putin’s position in the interview was weak, and it is on this basis that Putin tries to emphasize his personal strengths in history, psychology, and the historical truth of Russia on the issue of Ukraine in order to take audience with himself. Perhaps an audience with a weak intelligence will consider Vladimir Putin the winner of this interview, but you, the intelligent audience, definitely realized that Putin could not cover up the truth of Russia’s historical weakness against the West by clamoring.
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